黑龙江国土资源

基于牡丹江地区未来经济优先与人水和谐双重发展情景规划，本研究通过解析2010-2020年土地利用转移矩阵揭示该区域土地演变特征，并运用PLUS模型模拟2035年两种情景下的空间格局差异。研究发现：2010-2020年该地区土地利用变化趋势反映农业扩张趋于稳定。经济优先情景下：以耕地扩张驱动粮食增产可进经济发展，但导致林地锐减，加剧生态脆弱区资源超载与产能下降，凸显农业扩张与生态退化的空间矛盾。人水和谐情景下：响应“退耕还林”政策，水田面积大幅减少，林地面积显著增加，形成“生态优先”的空间重构逻辑。研究结果为平衡区域经济增长与东北边境生态安全提供决策依据，其成果对实现寒地可持续发展兼具生态安全保障和资源利用优化的双重价值。

Based on the dual development scenario planning prioritizing economic growth and human-water harmony in the Mudanjiang region, this study reveals the characteristics of land evolution in the area by analyzing the land use transfer matrix from 2010 to 2020.It further employs the PLUS model to simulate spatial pattern differences under two development scenarios projected for 2035.From 2010 to 2020,the trend of land use change in Mudanjiang City reflects the gradual stabilization of agricultural expansion; under the scenario of economic priority,the arable land is expanded to further drive the increase of food production, promoting the economic development.But this leads to the sharp decrease of forest land and exacerbate the overloading of resources in ecologically fragile zones with the decline of production capacity, which highlights the spatial contradiction between the expansion of agriculture and the degradation of the ecology.Under the scenario of human-water harmony, the local government responds to the policy of “returning farmland to forests”,which leads to a drastic reduction of paddy fields and a significant increase of forested areas, forming the spatial reconstruction logic of “ecological priority”.The results provide a decision-making basis for balancing regional economic growth and ecological security along the northeast border with dual values of guaranteeing ecological security and optimizing the use of resources to further achieve sustainable development in the cold regions.